North Korea and Possible War

[barq2]

Bump...

We got some pretty serious stuff going on here...

Been no posts here couple days but things really haves anyone else getting as nervous about this as I am???? Now he is threatening to shoot down allied bombers and fighters that are in international airspace even if they have not violated North Korean airspace.

This is a powder keg getting ready to blow. China supposedly wont help North Korea if they attack first. If US attacks first China will back North Koren. If and i do say IF god forbid someone uses a nuke does anyone see how this does not escalate into another World War? If that threshold is crossed I'm not sure it can be contained. Kind of opening Pandora's box.

How about some current thoughts especially all the new members signing up,

BUT SERIOUSLY THIS NORTH KOREN SITUATION REALLY MAKING ME NERVOUS!

It makes me nervous too. There is a proper deep nuclear bunker near where I live (sadly I don't have access), but it makes these things feel more real.

China are very unhappy with N Korea and have partly cooperated with the sanctions. I believe the reason they won't turn off the oil pipeline is more to do with it being old and their concern that if they turn it off, they may never get it back working again. Anyway, you have to ask whether they would really retaliate on behalf of NK? True, they don't want a USA backed nation on their border, which is what would happen under regime change. But China have far fewer nukes than the USA. And whatever their differences, they've got loads of money tied up in the USA and do a huge amount of trade going on between the countries. Continued economic growth is VERY important to China, since their leaders depend upon this to stay in power, so would they really torch that? I dunno...

I don't think this will be WWIII, but it could be a proxy war rather like during the Cold War. Not saying there won't be terrible loss of life, but I think it will mostly be on Korean soil rather than on the US mainland.

I think Trump is more likely to use a nuke than any of his predecessors (going back to Truman I guess). He has a sort of fascination with them. He can't understand why the USA has these weapons but won't use them. So I'm not sure he properly understands their role as deterrent. I see the biggest threat as an accidental escalation amidst all this rhetoric coming from both sides. The USA needs to be very careful that in showing its strength, it doesn't do anything that N Korea would interpret as an attack.

Where I live the main threat seemed to be a terrorist dirty bomb, so I spent a lot of time researching safety measures for that. Basically, you get your out clothes off as soon as you are somewhere clean. You get a shower and seriously wash your hair and fingers (but no hair conditioner as that locks the radioactive particles into your hair, at which point you'd have to shave it off). After that the best protection is distance, since radiation follows the inverse square rule. If you can get some calcium in, that can help. I guess most of these principles apply to anyone in the fallout zone. The much touted iodine isn't much use against a dirty bomb, but could help if there had been a proper nuclear explosion (ditto a leak from a power plant). But if a nuke landed on my city I would expect to be dead, and from what I know of acute radiation sickness I'd rather be among the dead than injured/sick and no help available.

Sorry Furyann66, I didn't mean to write such a depressing post but when you look at the situation it is hard to see any good. When your best hope is it stays regional and only a few million people die, that's kinda devastating isn't it?

I'm trying to work out if watching Dr Strangelove will make me feel better or worse!

[sam81]

What he do now actions of teenagers
A strong response will make him think more folly
Thier sees that the spark of the Third World War will be from there
But on the certainty nothing will happen

[solarpunch]

I'll chime in here quickly and keep it short. I vote we let Don and Kim in a UFC cage match type of fight and just let them hash it out. First to say uncle loses. Having to make humor out of this since the thought of nuclear war gives me the worst kind of anxiety ever. Mostly knowing our ICBM defense system is only 50% effective. I don't know about you but if 100 rockets are shot then 50 of them have a chance of causing damage. We will definitely will get the kill shot but they will wound us. So it's basically saying we would get shot in the knee at minimum. I know I wouldn't want to get shot period. The question is what do we do and are we unnecessarily provoking them to shoot first?

[barq2]

I'll chime in here quickly and keep it short. I vote we let Don and Kim in a UFC cage match type of fight and just let them hash it out. First to say uncle loses. Having to make humor out of this since the thought of nuclear war gives me the worst kind of anxiety ever. Mostly knowing our ICBM defense system is only 50% effective. I don't know about you but if 100 rockets are shot then 50 of them have a chance of causing damage. We will definitely will get the kill shot but they will wound us. So it's basically saying we would get shot in the knee at minimum. I know I wouldn't want to get shot period. The question is what do we do and are we unnecessarily provoking them to shoot first?

Haha! The cage fight really made me laugh :-) Not sure who'd win... Kim is much younger but not in good health.

If you live on mainland US soil I think you are safe. I agree that the defence system that shoots down missiles is imperfect. But then it is the equivalent of trying to shoot one bullet out the air with another!

It would be so obviously suicidal for North Korea to hit the USA, I just can't see it happening. Plus China is getting more actively involved. Their interests are different to the USA's, but if NK did something very stupid then they'd end up with a refugee crisis and then in the longer term a potentially re-united Korea, which means American military on their border. They don't like that idea, so there is a lot going on behind the scenes to pressure them into not firing more missiles.

That said, it would help if Trump stopped tweeting insults. What was it he called Kim, "little rocket man"? That's really not good because in NK Kim is an almost god-like figure, thus it is maximum disrespect and almost forces Kim to perform some show of strength. Obviously Kim is a horrible humanbeing, just look at what he has done to those who dare criticise him, but poking him really doesn't help.

The fact is that the majority of NK's military force is in the man-power. With their reservists they are the 4th largest army in the world, but for the most part they are very poorly equipped. The large army is a threat to South Korea, but really not to the USA as a country.

Jesus you have alot of knowledge, you must be in a war torn area ? If you don't mind me saying ,you seem to have a lot of knowledge about everyday ied's and radioactivity !

Thankfully not war torn, but I can see why you came to that conclusion! I know very little about conventional explosives, I know more about the nuclear stuff - but don't worry, I'm a pacifist! :-)

I'm not really on the inside, but I meet with people who are. Until the situation with North Korea the focus was far more on terrorists getting hold of radiative material and exploding it in a city - hence all the dirty bomb stuff I posted.

Now I deal more with human factors like mass panic, but it is still necessary to understand the nuclear physics to properly appraise a situation. So some of these things are more like psychological weapons. We can learn from situations where people have been freaking out about radiation readings 10x higher than background radiation. Obviously that's not great, but it isn't that serious either. Something like 170 counts per minute on a geiger counter sounds very scary.

[G.Elias]

Somehow, i dont really see NK using suicidal kamakazi pilots, they have drone technology, don't need a kamakazi pilot for that or for a ICBM, I don't think NK will actually do anything as drastic as using one of those missiles against the US, they know it would be game over for them if they did use one, its those top brass military guys that whisper in Trumps ear that can be just as worrying imo.